Syrian Situation and Updates of Shaykh Yaqubi's Statements

Abu Aleshba, why have you not updated us on this important subject:

http://www.sunniport.com/masabih/showthread.php?t=10898

??

 

Azzam Tamimi (British Palestinian academic)
19th April 2013

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rjriq8

 

I agree earlier on it was thought the Iranians were involved more in advisory role.

After key regime military and security figures were assasinated in a bomb attack it was said the Iranians had taken over decision making and strategy. Some suspected the regime itself of that attack due to fear of coup. For example it may have feared some discontent amongst the military heirarchy and allies (eg Russia). Russia could have encouraged a coup through Assad's brother-in-law and member of the inner circle Assef Shawkat, deputy minister of defence.

Hezbollah have certainly been involved Qusair and other bordering villages. There's an overlap with Shia's living across the border. Homs has been mentioned often too.

Iran and Hezbollah have also definitely been training a militia so Iran can maintain influence post Assad. Anything between 50,000 and 100,000 men. National Defence Forces or Commitees they call them. Regimists and Iranian forums openly talk about them. These local forces allow the regime forces to move on to new targets after capturing areas. The captured areas are then patrolled by these armed popular commitees. They are said to be based on the Iranian Basij movement.

The question is how deep are they likely to get involved to keep Assad in power? It's unlikely Syria will activate the defence pact with Iran as that could lead to involvement of regional countries and all out war.

The current regime offensive could well involve Iranian and Hezbo fighters alongside the regime troops.

In the past and even currently, Iranian and Shia fighters could have been deployed to guard and protect important sites (airports) and buildings so Assad could deploy much needed men elsewhere (frontline).

Here Palestinian Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of Al Quds, not exactly a supporter of the revolution writes about the likelihood of US intervening:

It seems Hassan Nasrallah has admitted that Hezbollah is involved:

 

It seems, as some reports suggest, the regime has had a good week, gaining some ground.

It is quite possible it is able to achieve this with increasing help from Iran and Hezbollah. There have been more and more reports of their involvement and the opposition have warned Hezbo in recent days

Every friday, the revolution chooses a name, a theme for demonstrations. This friday [posted on Yalla Souriya blog a short time ago]:

A few days ago an Assad supporter posted this on a hardcore Assad supporting forum (Iran Military Forum):

I don't know if that was said or not.

It seems Jordan has opened up it's border recently and Assad warned, in a new interview, that the fire could reach Jordan too.

Palestinian writer Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of Al Quds paper, for a long time a skeptic of the revolution, said this in a recent (16 Apr) article on his blog:

 

An interesting piece which describes the various layers of battles taking place in the syrian arena. The author is a Lebanese Christian. I remember he was a regular opinion writer on Al Arabia English website and also appeared on Al Jazeera occasionally on the subject of Syria:

Syria Is Complicated -- Simultaneous Conflicts Always Are

The war in Syria is so enduring and vexing precisely because it is such a multi-layered conflict, comprising at least six separate battles taking place at the same time, argues Rami G. Khouri.

First Published: 2013-04-16

[...]

I have previously described the war in Syria as the greatest proxy battle of our age, and I believe that is now clearer than ever as we see how Syria comprises a rich and expansive web of other conflicts that play themselves out on a local, regional and global scale.

The war in Syria is so enduring and vexing precisely because it is such a multi-layered conflict, comprising at least six separate battles taking place at the same time:

1. The domestic citizen revolt against the Assad family regime that has ruled Syria for 43 years is the first layer of the Syrian conflict, which reflects a widespread spirit of citizen activism for freedom, rights and dignity that continues to define much of the Arab World today. After the non-violent demonstrations that erupted across the country in spring 2011 elicited a violent military response from the regime, this political conflict quickly became a militarized war.

2. ....

[...]

 

It seems the regime is going on the offensive. Hopefully the rebels can see off this challenge and hopefully the regime expends it's gathered energy meaning it will be some time before it can go on the offensive again. InshaAllah.

Gouta, mentioned by Sh. Yaqoubi in above tweet, is to the east and south of Damascus (surrounding this area). If I remeber correct it is from Ghouta the rebels have been besieging Damascus International Airport and the main road leading to the airport

Yesterday it seems the regime managed to break the many month siege of a couple of strategic bases near Marat al Numan in the north. They came from behind the rebels and it is said about 68 rebels are either martyred, captured or missing. Apparently an important road in the area has also been opened up by the regime. One of the bases Wadi al Dayf is said to hold a significant fuel depot.

I'm worried the regime is or will be using some form of chemical weapons. Apart from being wrong it would be unfair as stalemates and hard won rebel gains can be easily overturned and areas recaptured by the regime.

Yesterday I read an article by Hassan Hassan which suspects the regime has been using a mixture of poisonous gases. In the following quote the author looks at the likelihood of the regime using such weapons:

Did the Syrian Regime Use Chemical Weapons?

14 Apr 2013

[...]

Is the regime foolish to use chemical weapons? Will that not invite foreign intervention? Even worse, will that not implicate Assad in war crimes in the future? Many people ask these questions to suggest that the Assad regime is unlikely to have used chemical weapons. But such conclusions ignore the reality on the ground. For more than a year, before talk of chemical weapons became the thing in western media and diplomatic circles, the regime’s rank-and-file officers had the habit of repeatedly threatening people that they would be “wiped out with chemical weapons” if they did not surrender. People from Al Bukamal, where I come from, were told this on more than one occasion especially as the regime was quickly losing ground around October and November.

The point is, while the use of chemical weapons might not serve a strategic purpose for winning a war, they can be used as a scare tactic to terrorise people. The regime is likely experimenting with some type of the weapons to send messages while at the same does not implicate itself and cause an international outcry. If the world shows leniency once again, the regime will just raise its weapons of terror a notch or two, as it has been doing over the two years.

[...]

 

Urgent! Posted by Sh. Yaqoubi ~16 hrs ago:

هام جدا – خبر مسرب

هجوم متوقع للنظام
وصلتنا معلومات مسربة تؤكد أن جيش النظام المجرم سيقوم بعملية عسكرية واسعة لاقتحام الغوطة من جهة العتيبة وقد أعد لها تسعة آلاف عسكري
وسيلجأ في حال فشل الاقتحام إلى سياسة الأرض المحروقة
كما وصلنا أن النظام قد جهز سرية من الانتحاريين للتسلل والقيام بعمليات بالأحزمة الناسفة
واستخدام السلاح الكيماوي وارد في الخطة
نرجو من جميع الكتائب والألوية الالتزام بأقصى درجات التأهب والاستعداد وأخذ جميع الاحتياطات وخصوصا لسلامة المدنيين
نسأل الله تعالى أن يرد كيد هذا النظام المجرم في نحره وأن يمد إخواننا المجاهدين بالنصر والتأييد.
آلشيخ محمد أبو الهدى اليعقوبي

Adnaan Al-Shadhili Translation:

Important Message – Leaked Information: The Regime’s Unexpected Attack

Shaykh Muhammad Al-Yaqoubi

Leaked information has reached us confirming that the criminal regime will be launching a mass military operation to storm into Al-Ghouta from the direction of Al-Otaiba, Damascus. For this the regime has prepared 9000 military personnel. In the event of failing to storm the area, the regime will resort to burning it down as we have been informed: They have secretly prepared suicide bombers to infiltrate and carry out bombings using explosive belts. The plan includes using chemical weapons too. We hope all battalions and brigades will ensure they are well prepared and that they will take all measures for the safety of civilians.

We beseech Allah Almighty that He returns the regime’s plots on itself and that He continue to grant our brothers, the Mujahidin victory and support.

************

A tweet by Sh. Yaqoubi ~16 hrs ago:

مسرب: هجوم وشيك لقوات النظام على الغوطة من جهة العتيبة ب ٩٠٠٠ عسكري وسرية انتحاريين بأحزمة ناسفة واستعمال الكيماوي وارد. رد الله كيدهم.

Google translation:

MSRP: an imminent attack regime forces on hand Ghouta Otaiba 9000 a secret military bombers with explosive belts and the use of chemotherapy and Ward. God responded to their scheme.
​

https://twitter.com/Shaykhabulhuda/status/323567205235191808
​

 

Just to clarify, in a previous thread I have already mentioned my position is that of the Ulama, the likes of Shaykh Usama Rifai, Shaykh Hisham Burahni, Shaykh Kurayyim Rajih and Shaykh Abdul Hadi Kharsa.

Especially the erudite interview of Shaykh Usama Rifai, which really convinced me that he is talking from real first hand experience from the ground.

I only post the links I post out of curiosity and observation.

 

http://db.tt/pj6qcUvV

 

The advice of Shaykh Abd Al-Hadi Kharsa to Shaykh Buti:

http://freehalab.wordpress.com/2013/01/07/shaykh-kharsa-until-when-shaykh-buti/

Note how Shaykh Abd Al-Hadi asked Shaykh Buti as to what prevented him from joining the position of Rabita Ulema Shaam; the Majlis of scholars which supports
the FSA.

Shaykh Abd Al-Hadi joins the revolution:

http://freehalab.wordpress.com/2012...s-and-supports-the-shaykhs-of-the-revolution/

 

Formation of The Free Islamic Sufi Movement:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swBTNvbEquY&feature=youtu.be

The speaker is the Shaykh mentioned in my earlier post; Shaykh Umar Rahmun

 

Non-Muslim analysis on one side and the views of our Ulema on one side...

Another Sufi Shaykh, Salih Al-Hamawi Al-Shadhili - Master of Hanafi Fiqh and the instrumental sciences:

His support for the FSA:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73REaAarEXA

His dua before going into battle:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuDawJXSvFw

His address to the people:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuM9QgE50GE

May Allah keep us steadfast and obedient to the Ulema Warithin

 

Dear Brother KS,

I've read your posts and agreed with virtually all of them, however, I am shocked how your are falling for this Wahabi propaganda

 

Sorry, I posted the wrong twitter conversation. Should have been this one:

https://twitter.com/hhassan140/status/321387161494634496

 

Imran Hossein has a total different analysis:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=YLnzBVqb4hc

Imran Hossein is former ambassador of Trinidad. He is against the revolution, but makes it very clear he is not a supporter of Assad. Oddly enough he says regarding Chavez 'Allah bless that man'!!

Too many divergent views and this issue is very intricate.

 

Ar'ur and Qardawi do encouraging the killing of scholars, and condoned the killing of Buti. This video is a regime propaganda video to show that point:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoKpo7vn3Cs

Here Dr Qardawi says something else:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBwsLHDvLRM

 

Robert Fisk's analysis:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2frNaLspPRs

According to Fisk, either a) the salfists or b) the nice secular FSA.

 

A look at those who will run a post Assad Syria:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHCLVuJovr0&feature=player_embedded#!

 

It is safer and wiser to allow only Sufi groups to operate amongst the opposition. The problem will occur when the opposition allows Salafi Wahabis to enter and operate amongst them.

Unfortunately this has already happened. Muaz Khatib has acknowledged there presence and influence.

 

Dr Buti's last lecture show that he had the correct creed with regard to the eternity of hellfire and the eternal damnation of disbelievers. T J Winter aka Abdul Hakim Murad claimed otherwise which in reality was a false assertion. Dr Buti said in his last lecture: