Genuine question:On 26 April, after the conclusion of phase 2, the Election Commission said the voter turnout was 60.96% at 7 PM.Today, the ECI data says the voter turnout was 66.71%.Five percent isn't a small increase . Shouldn't there be an explanation? pic.twitter.com/BCFz1ulPYY— Parth MN (@parthpunter) April 30, 2024
looks like the duo are hell bent on stealing the election. yadav is a veteran psephologist I have watched and studied Indian elections for 35 years now. While a difference of 3 to 5 % points between initial (polling day evening) and final turnout figures was not abnormal, we used to get the final data within 24 hours.What is unusual and worrying this time isa) delay… https://t.co/Z3NR0VGtQm— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) April 30, 2024
america's own rashtriya swayamsevak sangh has picked up on modi's netanyahu-wannabe antics and they're not liking it very much. this is awesome and i hope it spirals out of control in the near future. once the bible belt rednecks start holding a grudge against the hindu rashtra, things between india and usa are bound to get very interesting! https://www.westernjournal.com/indi...-assassinate-us-citizen-american-soil-report/
https://www.bbc.com/urdu/articles/cekl2nzz53zo Usa and canada are picking up on india's export of terrorism
https://m.rediff.com/news/report/in...alistan-slogans-at-trudeau-event/20240430.htm sikhs are nowhere as influential as jews, but one can see the effects of proper lobbying in canada's persistent and underhanded support for khalistan movement becoming an eyesore for the hindu rashtra, which is simply great
Congress woes with Muslims https://m.rediff.com/news/interview...obviously-angry-and-disappointed/20240429.htm
Agree with most of the analysis but this. This is one area where I believe the INDIA alliance failed. They should have formed an alliance here as well. BJP already garnered more than 40% of the vote share in the state's MLA elections. I still have the impression that even under the worst circumstances, the BJP won't fall below 15 seats here. Now, regarding Karnataka, the ground reports suggest at least 15 seats for the Congress. However, you can never predict the mood of the nation. Democracy doesn't follow a fixed trajectory; it's akin to analyzing unpredictable tactics. May Allah ﷻ grant us the patience to accept His divine will.
https://news.rediff.com/commentary/...slims-thakur/748ace32cfd7bfe87b0562b888f59f37 Another idiot makes the same Muslim comment.
south will be bjp-mukt in sha'Allah. kerala, TN and now ktaka - it is hoped (by us) and feared (by devils) that bjp will be wiped out. maharashtra is also seriously voting out bjp. west-bengal will also be a poor show for bjp. dhandhli - to mess up the evms, steal, replace is not going to work in these states (like they did in UP/bihar last election). they tried in bengaluru and even succeeded in one crucial seat, after cong candidate was declared winner - they stole in 16 "postal ballots" and managed to steal the seat by 16 votes. am not kidding, google it. if this was a 50% fair election, bjp would not make 150 seats (and in such a scenario - both modi and amitshah would be disqualified for 6 years leading to a wipe out. but that is just a dream) currently, all agencies are against the opposition and in spite of this, the projection on the ground is grim for bjp. only Allah knows what will happen - but let us be optimistic. going by figures, if the voting pattern and news from the ground in the south is to be believed, bjp will lose bad. south+maharashtra is 177 seats: ktaka 28 maha 48 tamilnadu 39 telangana (i.e. hyderabad) 17 kerala 20 andhra 25 -------------- 177 seats -------------- bjp may not even cross 10. in fact, the seats bjp can benefit from may come from maharashtra where they are allied with shinde/ajit pawar group. meaning NDA. bjp ITSELF will not cross 10 seats in the south! xeratti have been pointing this out by the change of modi's tone. he tweeted today and didn't mention 400, nor bjp - for the first time he speaks of "NDA" (meaning allied parties - on whom bjp is now banking). west bengal is the next big state with 42 seats; and bjp will be lucky if they wrestle 10 here. 2019 trend: 22 TMC (whihc is part opp.) 18 BJP and 2 cong. this time, bjp may not even reach 10. --- going by trends of 2019: rajasthan, MP, UP, bihar, haryana, himachal - the famed hindi belt (and apologies for muslim bros from this area but it is also pejoratively referred to as: cow-belt - a population that is dirt poor, illiterate and uncivilised, uncouth and highly criminalised society (we speak of hindu majority here, not muslims). economists also refer to this region as BIMARU states (pun on sick states "bimar" but also an acronym for Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (out of 3 states Bi-MP-UP, further 3 states were carved out: chhatisgarh, uttarkhand, jharkhand - so the BIMARU description includes all of these 7 states) so the cow-belt gave bjp (or rather they stole it in 2019 if you go by opposition claims) a majority in 2019. the swept it. how many seats are these? raj - 25 MP - 29 UP - 80 bihar - 40 haryana - 10 himachal - 4 chhatisgarh - 11 jharkhand - 14 uttarkhand - 5 ----------------- 218 Seats ----------------- in 2019, bjp won (by hook or by crook) 170 of those 218 seats. the rest came from (maha 24 + ktaka 25 + wb 18 + others) currently NDA has 303 seats in the parliament and bjp has 295 source: https://www.indiavotes.com/pc/party/statewise_seats_breakup/17 ========= coming back to 2024: south will be a washout for bjp and even in their stronghold, out of the 218 seats they will be extremely successful if they manage 100 out of these. --------- the "splitting votes" factor is also not going to work for bjp this time - as muslims have consolidated their vote across the country. people old enough to recall the 1980s will know what i mean: congress was assured victory because of the consolidated muslim vote. take the 2019 election: BJP's vote share was 37.7% meaning 62.3% voted against BJP - but due to splitting of votes between non-BJP parties, BJP made big gains. now, with consolidated muslim vote and at least a consistent 20-25% hindu vote for cong, bjp will lose big time. and UP will be the worst show going by psephologists projections. muslim vote would be splintered between cong, SP (akhilesh) and BSP (mayawati); the last one has been shamelessly treacherous and this time BSP won't get muslim votes; SP and cong have alliance so it is a consolidated muslim vote. going by trends of 2019, check UP results of 2019: again it was by hook or by crook - even if we assume that it was genuine, this 50% vote share of bjp is simply not going to happen. the jats, i.e. farmers and SC/ST - and curiously brahmins are also voting against bjp (as per reports and some serious observers). brahmins because yogi (is a thakur) and has almost eliminated brahmin influence in UP, and they are mad at him. bjp tried to cash on the mandir card, but the religious fanatics are angry with modi for the inauguration they did not want! and they are against too. also, in the 2020 pandemic - it was the north/cowbelt states that suffered the most; due to poor medical infrastructure. whatever propaganda bjp might do - the cold fact of losing near ones may be on the voter's minds and still prove a costly mistake for bjp. but that is for a rational thinking population. bhakts are a different breed altogether. going by ground reports, a 5% swing - not big - is enough to wipe out bjp from the state. besides, the 50% vote share is total average. a number of seats are muslim strongholds like saharanpur, kairana, moradabad, rampur etc. [saharanpur is the district where deoband is located, for non-indians]. ----- https://www.moneycontrol.com/electi...-landscape-in-1st-phase-article-12664481.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/citi...4-seats-in-uttar-pradesh-101708540101379.html ==== but like all things in our topsy-turvy world - results are irrational whether due to irrational behaviour or orchestration. only time will tell. if somehow bjp manage to retain their hold on power - we may witness a civil war and disintegration of the republic. will it be good or bad for muslims? in the long run yes - because the brute majority will be splintered - but in the short term, it may be a low-intensity replay of burma and srilanka (not gaza or syria hopefully) - muslims will be increasingly disenfranchised and most likely be relegated to second-class. and unfortunately, the muslim world at large will look the other way - and like the gazans, indian muslims will be left for their own fate. nas'alu Allah al-aafiyah. this is today's news: [debasish is the author of the 2021 book: to kill a democracy]
I was in his constituency today. I must say, the polling booths were mostly empty or less crowded. However, considering the opposition's failure to break the unity of Hindus, I somehow still feel NDA will get a majority, maybe lesser than the 2019 election.
https://news.rediff.com/commentary/...-code-breach/5fd38c789392818022d1449e5b80ffc0 Don't know if something real is brewing or if these are deliberate election psyops to display law and order.
