Iraqi Sunni population underestimated - proof

Discussion in 'General Topics' started by Wadood, Nov 6, 2016.

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  1. Wadood

    Wadood Veteran

    Now media is claiming that there are betwen 1.2 and 1.5 million civilians only within Mosul city boundaries while being held hostage. With another 100k taken in forcibly from the surrounding villages. This means that almost a quarter of the entire Iraqi Sunni Arab population resides in Mosul city limits. Now, based on simple logic, and this is highly conservative, another quarter that still resides in all of the vast anbar, salahuddin, and another quarter as refugees around the world, 1.5 million, which is conservative, and then another quarter in Kurdistan or 1.5 million,, then what of those in Tal Afar area, towns and villages around Mosul, 1 million plus in Baghdad { city limits only or 15% of the population, once again very conservative and based on Sunni neighbourhoods } There is those in Baqouba, Muqdadiya, Sadiya, Jalawla, Diyala and a million plus south of Baghdad, and in Basra, and the southern desert ?? There is also Hawija, which has dozens of villages and towns and continues to be densely populated under ISIS.

    Does that mean the Sunni Arab population is more than 10 million ? That makes the Sunni population not the oft quoted max 20% but at least 33%

    Conclusion: the Sunni Arab population is much higher than what is quoted by Vali Nasr, the media, the Iraqi govt, or the UN
  2. Wadood

    Wadood Veteran

    Even if, i assume that 10% of the population under Daesh control in Mosul, Tel Afar, and their surroundings is of Turkmen or Kurdish origin, those who did not flee, especially in Tel Afar, even then the Sunni Arab % calculated below goes down by just 1%

    Also, of the .5 million + who fled Mosul city when Daesh took over, more than half were Sunni Arabs. So Mosul city too has experienced a population loss of a quarter. Additionally, it is highly likely that Mosul currently has Sunni Arabs fleeing from the other areas, those who thought it was safer to be in Mosul or were Daesh sympathizers believing them to be part of Ba'ath party. This internal population influx offsets the initial loss.

    Overall, it is proven that all Daesh regions have experienced loss of Sunni Arabs in the double figure % including Mosul. In this report UNHCR has claimed that 150,000 additional people have fled Mosul surroundings in the past 5 months. These are overwhelmingly Sunni Arabs.
  3. Wadood

    Wadood Veteran

    With the current Mosul offensive underway to expel Daesh out of the embattled city, BBC has been forced to admit a reality on the ground that has been manipulated for the past decade and a half. That is, the Iraqi Sunnis are not 20% of Iraq!

    The whole media apparatus has been designed to hide the truth on Iraq. In this report, pasted below, BBC, as in the past, has admitted that there are 1.5 million Sunni Arabs in and around Mosul, under Daesh control.

    Now, considering the post-crisis Sunni Arab population figures for the rest of Iraq, and i am being extremely conservative [ under the assumption that near to 70% of them have fled ! ]

    Anbar Province - .5 million (assumption - 70% fled )
    Babil Province - .2 million (assumption - 70% fled )
    Baghdad Province - natives 1 million
    Salahuddin Province - .6 million [ recent news claimed .3 million in recently libereated Qayyarah and Shiraqt subdistricts alone; moreover, assuming 70% have fled ]
    Diyala Province - .35 million [ assuming 70% have fled ]
    Kirkuk Province - (Hawija area under Daesh added to it) - .35 million [ 70% fled ]
    South of Iraq - .45 million (including Basra, other localities, and the desert bedouin ) [ assuming 50% have fled ]
    Wasit province - .2 million (Suwayrah) [ assuming 50% have fled ]
    Rest of area under Daesh including regions to the south of Tel Afar, and south/southwest of Mosul including the deserts ) - .3 million [ assuming 50% have fled ]

    This gives a grand total of 6.45 million of 19.5% of Iraq's population.

    Now, we can add the 1 million + in Iraqi Kurdistan [ i am very conservative with this figure though], .75 million in Jordan, .25 Syria .25 million in Lebanon, .5 million in Turkey, and 1 million in the rest of the world [ and similarly, conservative with these figures too ]

    That gives a total of 10.35 million in a population of 33 million Iraqis [ according to the twelver iraqi govt ]. So, does that mean Sunni arabs are 31 to 33 % of Iraq ?? That is far away from the often quoted 20% by the UN. They probably are even higher in %

    Adding the Kurdish Sunnis and the Turkmen Sunnis to Iraq, and adjusting for the disproportionately higher number of Sunni Arabs martured in their hundreds of thousands over the past decade, once again, media reports have contradicted themselves, and as always it seems

    Sunnis in Iraq are not 35 to 37% but they were actually near to 60% or higher
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2016

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