south will be bjp-mukt in sha'Allah. kerala, TN and now ktaka - it is hoped (by us) and feared (by devils) that bjp will be wiped out. maharashtra is also seriously voting out bjp. west-bengal will also be a poor show for bjp. dhandhli - to mess up the evms, steal, replace is not going to work in these states (like they did in UP/bihar last election). they tried in bengaluru and even succeeded in one crucial seat, after cong candidate was declared winner - they stole in 16 "postal ballots" and managed to steal the seat by 16 votes. am not kidding, google it. if this was a 50% fair election, bjp would not make 150 seats (and in such a scenario - both modi and amitshah would be disqualified for 6 years leading to a wipe out. but that is just a dream) currently, all agencies are against the opposition and in spite of this, the projection on the ground is grim for bjp. only Allah knows what will happen - but let us be optimistic. going by figures, if the voting pattern and news from the ground in the south is to be believed, bjp will lose bad. south+maharashtra is 177 seats: ktaka 28 maha 48 tamilnadu 39 telangana (i.e. hyderabad) 17 kerala 20 andhra 25 -------------- 177 seats -------------- bjp may not even cross 10. in fact, the seats bjp can benefit from may come from maharashtra where they are allied with shinde/ajit pawar group. meaning NDA. bjp ITSELF will not cross 10 seats in the south! xeratti have been pointing this out by the change of modi's tone. he tweeted today and didn't mention 400, nor bjp - for the first time he speaks of "NDA" (meaning allied parties - on whom bjp is now banking). west bengal is the next big state with 42 seats; and bjp will be lucky if they wrestle 10 here. 2019 trend: 22 TMC (whihc is part opp.) 18 BJP and 2 cong. this time, bjp may not even reach 10. --- going by trends of 2019: rajasthan, MP, UP, bihar, haryana, himachal - the famed hindi belt (and apologies for muslim bros from this area but it is also pejoratively referred to as: cow-belt - a population that is dirt poor, illiterate and uncivilised, uncouth and highly criminalised society (we speak of hindu majority here, not muslims). economists also refer to this region as BIMARU states (pun on sick states "bimar" but also an acronym for Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (out of 3 states Bi-MP-UP, further 3 states were carved out: chhatisgarh, uttarkhand, jharkhand - so the BIMARU description includes all of these 7 states) so the cow-belt gave bjp (or rather they stole it in 2019 if you go by opposition claims) a majority in 2019. the swept it. how many seats are these? raj - 25 MP - 29 UP - 80 bihar - 40 haryana - 10 himachal - 4 chhatisgarh - 11 jharkhand - 14 uttarkhand - 5 ----------------- 218 Seats ----------------- in 2019, bjp won (by hook or by crook) 170 of those 218 seats. the rest came from (maha 24 + ktaka 25 + wb 18 + others) currently NDA has 303 seats in the parliament and bjp has 295 source: https://www.indiavotes.com/pc/party/statewise_seats_breakup/17 ========= coming back to 2024: south will be a washout for bjp and even in their stronghold, out of the 218 seats they will be extremely successful if they manage 100 out of these. --------- the "splitting votes" factor is also not going to work for bjp this time - as muslims have consolidated their vote across the country. people old enough to recall the 1980s will know what i mean: congress was assured victory because of the consolidated muslim vote. take the 2019 election: BJP's vote share was 37.7% meaning 62.3% voted against BJP - but due to splitting of votes between non-BJP parties, BJP made big gains. now, with consolidated muslim vote and at least a consistent 20-25% hindu vote for cong, bjp will lose big time. and UP will be the worst show going by psephologists projections. muslim vote would be splintered between cong, SP (akhilesh) and BSP (mayawati); the last one has been shamelessly treacherous and this time BSP won't get muslim votes; SP and cong have alliance so it is a consolidated muslim vote. going by trends of 2019, check UP results of 2019: again it was by hook or by crook - even if we assume that it was genuine, this 50% vote share of bjp is simply not going to happen. the jats, i.e. farmers and SC/ST - and curiously brahmins are also voting against bjp (as per reports and some serious observers). brahmins because yogi (is a thakur) and has almost eliminated brahmin influence in UP, and they are mad at him. bjp tried to cash on the mandir card, but the religious fanatics are angry with modi for the inauguration they did not want! and they are against too. also, in the 2020 pandemic - it was the north/cowbelt states that suffered the most; due to poor medical infrastructure. whatever propaganda bjp might do - the cold fact of losing near ones may be on the voter's minds and still prove a costly mistake for bjp. but that is for a rational thinking population. bhakts are a different breed altogether. going by ground reports, a 5% swing - not big - is enough to wipe out bjp from the state. besides, the 50% vote share is total average. a number of seats are muslim strongholds like saharanpur, kairana, moradabad, rampur etc. [saharanpur is the district where deoband is located, for non-indians]. ----- https://www.moneycontrol.com/electi...-landscape-in-1st-phase-article-12664481.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/citi...4-seats-in-uttar-pradesh-101708540101379.html ==== but like all things in our topsy-turvy world - results are irrational whether due to irrational behaviour or orchestration. only time will tell. if somehow bjp manage to retain their hold on power - we may witness a civil war and disintegration of the republic. will it be good or bad for muslims? in the long run yes - because the brute majority will be splintered - but in the short term, it may be a low-intensity replay of burma and srilanka (not gaza or syria hopefully) - muslims will be increasingly disenfranchised and most likely be relegated to second-class. and unfortunately, the muslim world at large will look the other way - and like the gazans, indian muslims will be left for their own fate. nas'alu Allah al-aafiyah. this is today's news: [debasish is the author of the 2021 book: to kill a democracy]
I was in his constituency today. I must say, the polling booths were mostly empty or less crowded. However, considering the opposition's failure to break the unity of Hindus, I somehow still feel NDA will get a majority, maybe lesser than the 2019 election.
https://news.rediff.com/commentary/...-code-breach/5fd38c789392818022d1449e5b80ffc0 Don't know if something real is brewing or if these are deliberate election psyops to display law and order.
this june we will know whether the nightmare has ended - or whether the actual nightmare starts. nas'alu Allah al aafiyah.
this is a mega thread similar to AQ's posts on this thread. Nope, this is not like 1930s Germany at all. At all! https://t.co/cDDkqvTYqY— Gaurav Sabnis (@gauravsabnis) April 22, 2024
this is a mega thread similar to AQ's posts on this thread. Nope, this is not like 1930s Germany at all. At all! https://t.co/cDDkqvTYqY— Gaurav Sabnis (@gauravsabnis) April 22, 2024
though it appeared far fetched a couple of months ago, it seems bjp/modi is going to lose big. poodles in the media are singing a difficult tune. whether this is facade or a real change in ground realities - we will know in about 2 months - or earlier if it is everything is upended. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s toxic speech is vile and highly deplorable. Fearing public anger against his failures, Modi has attempted to whip up religious sentiments and resorted to hate speech to avoid what seems to be an imminent defeat. Hate and discrimination are the real… https://t.co/MA9OeaVYIi pic.twitter.com/SmM9yHmryT— M.K.Stalin (@mkstalin) April 22, 2024 when sudhir tihadi, one of the shameless anti-muslim shills of the ruling fascist party begins to fact-check the prime minister, some are sitting up to notice whither the winds blow.. Just one phase of the election is over, and the situation for BJP is so bad that even Sudhir Chaudhary has started fact-checking the PM. pic.twitter.com/cHQczRZABU— PuNsTeR™ (@Pun_Starr) April 22, 2024 --- another small thing in the news today is the ambani's son's marriage will be in the UK. a few months ago they made big show of how due to modi's encouragement, the marriage would be in india. another sign of rats abandoning the sinking ship. --- are we reading too much? or will the criminal duo (shah-modi) throw all pretense and do it like they always did? going by the surat seat election - some are worried that we may end up with a full fledged dictatorship. Democracy is under threat. Aap chronology samajhiye:• Surat District Election Officer rejects @INCIndia’s candidate for Surat Lok Sabha, Nilesh Kumbhani’s nomination for “discrepancies in verification of signatures of three proposers”• On similar grounds, officials reject… https://t.co/uEnLeCGOG7— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) April 22, 2024 A preview of India's evolution to a clone of the Republic of North Korea.... except that the Supreme Leader is a lot older, and has grey hairSure the ECI's eternal rest will not be disturbed, and the Wilful Blindness of the courts will continue unabated... https://t.co/ftxB76ZcW3— Dr P Thiaga Rajan (PTR) (@ptrmadurai) April 22, 2024 ---
https://news.rediff.com/commentary/...ria-law-yogi/ef378b7ded4b84dcf310ebccbf8342d3 Looks like the republic is in its death throes! It seems more a reality now that bharat will disintegrate... with dheds openly making such kind of comments! This election will be the end of vote bank politics.
https://m.rediff.com/news/report/co...lth-to-muslims-modi-in-rajasthan/20240421.htm modi openly barking against Muslims Muslim leaders and aimmah at home and in Arab nations couldn't care less!
https://m.rediff.com/news/report/su...ndus-indian-american-congressman/20240416.htm They've learnt well from the yahood to be zalimeen, yet cry crocodile tears as victims! They mention California... CA had to pass an anti caste based discrimination law just to address hindus discriminating against other hindus (check the recent bills passed by the state)... trust me in another 2 decades they'll even bring streetside defecation to the US! Edison NJ and the san Francisco Bay area will have their own dharavi pretty soon!
https://m.rediff.com/news/report/mo...r-eating-meat-during-sawan-month/20240412.htm hindutva gets obscenely petty and laughable by the hour!
https://m.rediff.com/news/report/sc...rayers-in-gyanvapi-mosque-cellar/20240401.htm Only fools will say 'we trust the courts'... even pretentiously in front of cameras! Muslims should now say we don't trust all of the executive, legislative, or judiciary.
